Etihad CEO Says Airline Will Break Even in 2026 — With Jet Fuel and Aircraft Supply as the Real Constraints

As recently as earlier this year, Etihad's own planning had allowed for the possibility of an annual loss in 2026, given the disruption caused by the June conflict between Israel and Iran, which triggered temporary airspace closures across parts of the Gulf and forced Etihad and rival Gulf carriers to suspend flights to several destinations, including Iraq, Iran, and at various points Bahrain and Kuwait. Oil prices spiked above $100 a barrel during the acute phase of the crisis as the US and Israel struck Iranian targets and markets weighed the risk to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Neves said that outlook has now flipped. "We are breaking even this year. We are not budgeting for a loss this year. We see demand very, very strong," he said, according to Reuters. The airline is currently flying at roughly 90% capacity — some reports put the figure as high as 92% — a load factor Neves and other executives have pointed to as evidence that the disruption did not dent underlying appetite to fly through Abu Dhabi.

Behind that headline number sits a more granular claim: Etihad says its available seat kilometres, the standard industry measure of passenger-carrying capacity, are running 15 to 17% higher than a year ago. Neves told Bloomberg that this makes Etihad the only carrier in the region expanding year-on-year at that pace, a claim aimed squarely at competitors Emirates and Qatar Airways, both of which have taken a more conservative approach to growth this year.

Cargo has also been a bright spot. Neves described Etihad's air freight business as "booming," a continuation of a trend that has lifted the airline's bottom line for several consecutive years and that has become increasingly important to Gulf carriers as e-commerce volumes between Asia, the Middle East and Europe continue to grow.

The fuel warning

Where Neves was notably less upbeat was on the outlook for 2027. In his most widely quoted remarks, given to Bloomberg on September 14, he warned that "jet fuel keeps me awake" and said the real risk to Etihad's business is not this year's cost base but what happens if elevated fuel prices persist into next year without airlines being able to pass the cost on to passengers.

The reason, Neves argued, is competitive dynamics rather than customer resistance. Airlines across the Gulf, Europe and the US are fighting hard for the same passengers, he said, which makes it difficult for any single carrier to raise fares unilaterally even if its own costs are rising. Bloomberg summarized the point plainly in its headline: fierce competition between Middle East airlines means the rising cost of jet fuel "won't be passed on to customers just yet." Etihad has roughly 60% of its fuel needs hedged through the end of 2026, according to the same reporting, which has cushioned the airline this year but does not extend the protection into 2027.

The AGBI aviation outlet made a related point in its own analysis of Gulf fares this year, noting that falling jet fuel prices earlier in 2026 had not translated into cheaper tickets for consumers, and that the reverse dynamic — rising fuel costs failing to show up in fares — reflects the same underlying competitive pressure rather than a one-off event tied to any single airline's pricing strategy.

Aircraft, not demand, is the ceiling

The second constraint Neves described is more structural than macroeconomic: Etihad simply cannot get enough widebody aircraft delivered fast enough to meet the demand it says exists. Speaking to Skift, Neves said the airline "could have had 15 more widebodies today" if manufacturers and lessors could supply them, framing aircraft availability — not passenger demand — as the effective ceiling on Etihad's growth this year.

That is a notable inversion of the narrative that dominated Gulf aviation coverage for much of the past two years, in which demand recovery and route restoration were the story. Neves' comments suggest Etihad has moved past that phase and is now bottlenecked by the same global supply-chain constraints — persistent delays at both Airbus and Boeing, and a tight leasing market — that have squeezed airlines worldwide.

Etihad's own fleet-delivery figures show the scale of what it is trying to absorb. The airline has said it expects around 20 additional aircraft a year through 2025 and 2026, with roughly 15 more aircraft due for delivery before the end of this year, a mix that reportedly includes further Boeing 787s and Airbus A321LRs, the type Etihad added to routes such as its recently upgraded Munich service.

Looking further out, Neves outlined plans to grow Etihad's daily flight count from around 320 today to roughly 400 by the end of 2027, a 25% increase, with China, Africa and Latin America singled out as the priority growth markets. That timeline depends heavily on aircraft supply catching up with the airline's ambitions — the same dependency Neves flagged as this year's binding constraint.

IPO still on hold, but "ready anytime"

Neves was also asked, as he frequently is, about Etihad's long-rumored initial public offering. His answer followed a pattern he has repeated in earlier interviews this year: there is no change in the airline's position, an IPO is not currently on the agenda, and any decision rests with shareholders rather than management. He added that he runs the airline with the discipline and transparency of a publicly listed company regardless, and reiterated that Etihad is "ready to IPO anytime" if and when its owner, Abu Dhabi's ADQ sovereign wealth fund, decides to proceed. Reports earlier in the year had suggested a roughly $1 billion listing could be pushed into 2026, though no firm date has been set as of mid-September.

2025 baseline and what it means for the sector

The comments build on a 2025 in which Etihad said profit rose 47% year-on-year to Dh2.6 billion, driven by growth in both its passenger and cargo divisions. That improving trend, combined with the airline's insistence that 2026 will not produce a loss despite a summer of regional conflict, positions Etihad as something of an outlier among Gulf carriers this year — most of which have talked more about capacity discipline and route suspensions than about outrunning their own aircraft deliveries.

For the wider Gulf aviation market, Neves' remarks carry two takeaways that matter beyond Etihad's own results. First, the fact that a Gulf CEO is publicly worried about fuel-driven fare pressure heading into 2027, even as his own airline is profitable and growing, suggests the industry's cost base has not eased as much as falling headline oil prices earlier in the year might have implied. Second, the acknowledgment that aircraft supply — not passenger appetite — is now the binding constraint on growth echoes a complaint airlines worldwide have made for the past two years, but it is a notable admission from a carrier that has generally emphasized its own growth story over industry-wide manufacturing delays.

Etihad has not given an exact figure for what "break-even" will mean in dollar or dirham terms for full-year 2026, and the airline's final results, expected in the first quarter of 2027, will be the first real test of whether the load factors and capacity growth Neves described translate into the underlying number he is promising.

Sources

• Etihad Says Gulf Airline Competition Delays Higher Fares for Passengers – Bloomberg
• Etihad CEO sees break-even in 2026 amid high jet fuel costs and regional conflict – Khaleej Times
• Etihad expects 2026 break-even and strong demand despite Iran war – The National
• Etihad Airways sees strong demand, higher passenger capacity despite Iran war, CEO says – Reuters (via Investing.com)
• Etihad CEO Says 'Aircraft Is the Constraint' as China and Africa Drive Growth – Skift
• Etihad Airways is IPO-ready, but no date has been decided yet, says CEO – Khaleej Times
• Falling jet fuel prices will not mean cheaper Gulf air fares – AGBI