Pakistan extends its airspace ban on Indian aircraft for a sixteenth time, to 24 September

Rajkumar Agarwal23 August 20267 min read0 viewsAirlines
Pakistan extends its airspace ban on Indian aircraft for a sixteenth time, to 24 September

Pakistan has extended its ban on Indian-registered aircraft using its airspace until 24 September, the sixteenth rollover of a restriction that has now been continuously in force for close to sixteen months.

The extension was issued as NOTAM A476/26, effective 18 August and running until 04:59 Pakistan Standard Time on 24 September. It applies to aircraft registered in India, to Indian airlines, to aircraft leased by Indian operators, and to commercial or military aircraft owned or operated by Indian nationals. The previous notice had been due to expire on 23 August.

India maintains a reciprocal closure to Pakistani-registered aircraft, airlines and military flights, extended on the same rolling basis.

A rolling ban that has stopped being temporary

The original closure was imposed on 23 April 2025, in the aftermath of the attack at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir and the diplomatic rupture that followed. It has been renewed roughly monthly ever since.

The pattern matters more than any single notice. A NOTAM is, by design, a temporary instrument — notice to airmen about a condition expected to change. Sixteen consecutive extensions turn that instrument into something else: a standing feature of the route structure that airlines have to plan around without ever being able to plan for its removal. Carriers cannot write it out of their schedules, and cannot write it permanently in either.

That ambiguity is expensive in a specific way. An airline that knew the corridor was closed for three years would restructure its fleet assignment, its crew bases and its network accordingly. An airline facing a month-to-month notice keeps absorbing the workaround cost.

What the detour actually costs

Pakistani airspace sits directly under the shortest tracks from Delhi and the north Indian cities toward the Gulf, Europe, the Caucasus and North America. With it closed, Indian carriers route south over the Arabian Sea or east and north around, adding block time on almost every westbound sector out of the north.

Air India has been the most exposed operator, because it flies the longest sectors from the most affected bases. The airline estimated an additional cost of roughly $600 million from a year-long closure, and has sought government support to cover the detour burden, according to a company letter reported by Reuters. Extended sectors mean more fuel, more crew — in some cases an additional operating crew to stay inside duty limits — and, on the longest routes, technical stops.

Air India has used fuel stops in Europe on some services, and this month restored its Delhi–Toronto flight to a planned nonstop from 1 August, replacing the outbound stop in Vienna. The airline has simultaneously been rationalising its international network through August, citing continued airspace restrictions and high jet fuel prices among the drivers.

Reported financial impact of the airspace closure on Air India
Reported financial impact of the airspace closure on Air India

The two figures are not the same thing and should not be added together: the $600 million is a modelled incremental cost of the closure, while the loss for the year to 31 March reflects the whole business, including fuel prices, currency, the aftermath of regional disruption and the airline's ongoing fleet transition. The closure is one contributor among several, and Air India has named it as such.

Wider industry estimates published after the 2025 closure put the annual cost to Indian carriers collectively in the region of several hundred million dollars, though those figures are modelled rather than audited and vary with fuel price assumptions and schedule mix.

The network consequences are now visible

The detour cost no longer sits quietly in an operating statement. It is turning up in route decisions.

IndiGo confirmed on 2 August that it is winding down its damp lease of Boeing 787-9s from Norse Atlantic and will suspend its Heathrow service from 25 October, citing airspace closures, higher fuel prices and broader cost pressure. Widebody long-haul flying is not expected to resume until the airline's own A350s begin arriving from 2027; the carrier has 60 on order, with deliveries starting 2028 for the bulk of the fleet, and new chief executive Willie Walsh has described the type as central to the international plan.

The airline is meanwhile pushing international growth through the A321XLR instead — Istanbul, Amsterdam and a China service among the additions. That is a narrowbody answer to a widebody problem, and the range penalty imposed by flying around Pakistan bears directly on which of those city pairs work.

Air India's route rationalisation through August points the same way: the carrier says it will continue operating more than 1,200 international flights a month, but with the mix adjusted.

A soft domestic market underneath

The closure is landing on a market that is not, at present, growing.

DGCA data for July showed Indian carriers flew about 1.20 crore domestic passengers, down 4.8 per cent from 1.26 crore a year earlier. IndiGo carried 80.82 lakh of them for a 67.4 per cent share; the Air India group was second on 24 per cent with 28.75 lakh; Akasa Air took 5.5 per cent with 6.65 lakh; SpiceJet 1.6 per cent with 1.87 lakh. On-time performance was led by IndiGo at 91.2 per cent, with Akasa close behind at 90.8 per cent.

Domestic market share of Indian carriers, July 2026
Domestic market share of Indian carriers, July 2026

A year-on-year decline in Indian domestic traffic is unusual enough to be worth noting on its own. It removes the cushion that a growing home market would otherwise provide against an international cost shock, and it narrows the room for carriers to price the detour through to passengers.

Elsewhere in the region, expansion continues

The contrast with the Gulf is sharp. Riyadh Air launched daily Mumbai flights on 4 August, part of the Saudi carrier's push into the Indian market. Emirates resumed Dubai–Bahrain services from 15 August after weeks of cancellations tied to regional tensions, while Kuwait services remained suspended; Qatar Airways has been rebuilding its network through the summer season after earlier regional disruption.

Gulf carriers are unaffected by the India–Pakistan closure on their India services and continue to benefit from the structural advantage of one-stop connectivity over Indian hubs — an advantage that widens whenever an Indian carrier's own long-haul economics deteriorate.

What to watch

The next decision point is 24 September. On the record of the past sixteen months, a further extension is the base case, though nothing in the notice indicates intent either way and the closure is a diplomatic instrument rather than an operational one.

Two things would change the picture materially. One is any movement on alternative corridors: Air India has explored routings that would reduce the penalty on westbound long-haul, and any such agreement would be a significant development. The other is the A350 delivery stream from 2027, which changes what IndiGo can fly around the closure rather than removing the closure itself.

Until then, Indian carriers keep paying for the long way round, one NOTAM at a time.

Sources

#Air India#route networks#IndiGo#India aviation#Pakistan airspace
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